COVID-19 Note

I am suspending all calendar event notices until the status of events is more predictable and is back on a normal track as the Corona virus threat lessens, I hope.

At this point cancellations are just about everywhere with various dates for when venues, organizations and schools hope to be back to regular operations. Some are already working at online classes using Zoom or other teleconferencing applications. That, of course is not the same as face-to-face work but it is a way to keep things in play.

I also think this will be worse then we are told. We are poorly prepared, having little to no true public health in the country. I speak as a user of the VA health system which has been superb for me and for friends I know. I hasn't been given much credit but it does nicely. So far in any year I haven't paid more than $40, and that for copays on some prescriptions. In the meantime I've had doctor exams, labs, vaccines, even ultrasound and blood pressure monitors for me, all at no out-of-pocket cost. Further, they keep me appraised of events and make sure I get my regular appointments, any special appointments and even send me prescriptions. And I can go to any VA hospital or clinic anywhere in the country, should I need, at any time. I can also consult at any time using their remote connection app. They really go all out.

By comparison, as far as I am concerned, "Wounded Warriors" is a scam but it is all we hear, while the VA gets pummeled. But for all the advertising I never see any WWs clinics or hospital or outreach programs. All that advertising takes money and my old "reporter sense" tells me they are taking the money and running. Did, you know I used to be a reporter? I managed to get cynical in short order. But those are other stories.

For my money, and because of my experiences the VA is not only tops (yes, it isn't perfect and there are some things I would like) but is a good start on a model for a public health system. Forget insurance companies. They are there to make a profit, not provide care.

Okay, so much for my soap box.

I may take this time to refresh the calendar approach and redo what I cover. Remember, I've never made any money on this. I've only spent money on this. And I've never tracked anyone. Because of Facebook there has been little point for a long time in keeping up with lessons and events in the area. Not that I think Facebook does a good job. For one thing it is not designed to cover dance. It is designed to addict visitors to returning to "give" their data which can be sold. The addiction comes in because you can't simply come back later and expect to re-read anything the way you saw it. It keeps changing. I call it Flushbook because anything on that platform disappears as someone else's item is posted and then another post and so on. Facebook itself admits this is deliberate and uses the "addiction" word for their method.

Facebook is a constantly moving target and I don't begin to have the time to be glued to the machine. I also avoid using FB as much as possible, partly because as an old database programmer for decades, I don't like tracking, spying and data mining - from anyone, including Google and Amazon (what did you think those wonderful smart speakers were?). This would creep out (and should) anyone were it happening with some physical person looming over us constantly. Yet that could hardly gather as much information as data mining. Even so, people sign up like crazy and can't seem to stay away from it - - or other surveillance technologies sold as conveniences.

For some time now I've let the calendar run itself, hoping that contributors will keep their own data up to date. The calendar is designed to maintain a list of times for event but also regular lessons in a database which doesn't flush away with each new post. In the meantime I mostly use my site to merely show pictures from events I cover. With the Corona crisis I will take the time off to rethink what I want to do with kcdance.

Cheers,
Mike Strong

COVID stats - 26 Oct 2020

And, not so cheery note, a chart as of October 26th 2020 of COVID figures for a small selection of countries. For an extensive, always up-to-date list go to the Johns Hopkins link below.

What I added is the "US Equiv Deaths" column, an extrapolation showing the deaths we would have if we had the leadership, health care, social conditions etcetera of each of the countries on the line. Several countries have handled this public health care far better than the US, especially, in this limited chart New Zealand and China. The Johns Hopkins has a far larger list of countries and you can change the sort order for any column.

	Death Rates of a few selected countries compared, standardizing units
				Mon Oct 26th, 2020, 3am		What the US would have if we had the same conditions as the other countries listed
		Given	US Comparison	Given	Given
	Country	population (Oct 2020)	Multiplier	Cases	Deaths	US Equiv Deaths	Case Fatality	Deaths/100k
		Most from wikipedia
1	USA	330,491,064	1	8635966	225,229	225,229	2.61%	68.15
2	Norway	5,421,241	60.96	17909	279	17,008	1.56%	5.15
3	Sweden *	10,352,390	31.92	110594	5,933	189,406	5.36%	57.31
4	Denmark	5,798,930	56.99	40864	688	39,210	1.68%	11.86
5	New Zealand	5,093,880	64.88	1940	25	1,622	1.29%	0.49
6	Italy **	60,433,154	5.47	542700	36,968	202,167	6.81%	61.17
7	Mexico	128,932,753	2.56	891160	88924	227,937	9.98%	68.97
8	Canada	37,742,154	8.76	218874	9995	87,522	4.57%	26.48
9	UK	67,999,816	4.86	876840	44986	218,640	5.13%	66.16
10	China	1,441,100,730	0.23	91151	4739	1,087	5.20%	0.33
11	Venezuela	28,887,118	11.44	89565	773	8,844	0.86%	2.68
	Note: social practices are not reflected in the chart above nor are they part of calculations. Nor are masking methods. These numbers are only part of the story.
	US figure note: The official figure (not fully reported by the White House) is used, not the number of extra deaths which is far higher (about 300,000+ at this point) which may be more accurate
	* Sweden practiced herd immunity. The figures might be worse but Sweden also has a high percentage of people living alone
	** Italy has good care but also a large number of people living in extended-family units
	Variables include numbers tested, age demographics, healthcare systems and social norms (for starters, which complicates lessons to be learned from these minimal numbers)
	Reference guide to validate the formula to calculate case fatality and deaths per 100K: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
	Mike Strong